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JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. (WLY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue was $442.6M; adjusted revenue was flat YoY at constant currency as Research Publishing grew +4% offsetting Learning declines tied to a large prior-year AI project; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.25 and non-GAAP adjusted EPS rose 14% to $1.37 .
- Wiley raised its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin target to 25.5–26.5% (from 25%+ in March and 24–25% originally), reaffirmed ~$200M FCF, and guided low-to-mid single digit adjusted revenue growth, citing cost savings, recurring revenue strength, and AI licensing momentum .
- S&P Global consensus for Q4 2025 was $1.27 EPS*, $435.0M revenue*, and $125.3M EBITDA*; Wiley beat EPS and revenue but missed consensus EBITDA, reflecting non-GAAP adjustments (company-reported adjusted EBITDA of $125.6M) and divestiture effects . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Strategic catalysts: a third major AI model-training customer and new vertical-specific AI partnerships (AWS research agent; Perplexity education integration); $120M cash proceeds post-quarter from University Services divestiture earmarked to reduce debt and interest expense .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Adjusted EPS (+14% YoY in Q4; +31% FY) and margin expansion (Q4 adjusted operating margin up 260 bps; FY up 300 bps) on revenue mix and cost reductions .
- AI licensing momentum: $40M FY AI licensing revenue; signed a third large tech customer; vertical-specific pilots in pharma, chemicals, and space agency; Perplexity and AWS collaborations broaden enterprise use cases .
- CEO tone: “We met or exceeded our financial commitments… expanded margins and free cash flow, and extended further into the corporate market through AI licensing and partnership, science analytics, and knowledge services” .
What Went Wrong
- Learning segment Q4 revenue declined 5% due to a $23M prior-year AI project compare and retail channel softness in Professional; Learning adjusted EBITDA fell 6% in the quarter .
- Corporate expenses had modest unallocated increases for enterprise modernization despite overall corporate expense reductions; restructuring charges of ~$12M in Q4 as efficiency programs intensified .
- Continued losses related to sale/impairments of held-for-sale businesses impacted GAAP metrics and tax rate volatility (valuation allowance mechanics), creating noise vs underlying non-GAAP results .
Financial Results
Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Notes: S&P Global values retrieved from S&P Global.* Company-adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring/divestiture impacts; S&P “actual” may reflect a different (GAAP) construct vs company’s adjusted reporting .
Year-over-Year Q4 Comparison
Segment Breakdown – Q4 2025
KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash Flow
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (prepared remarks): “We met or exceeded our financial commitments… drove growth in our core while delivering material margin expansion, and capitalized on emerging market opportunities… through AI licensing… data analytics, and knowledge services” .
- CFO: “We took certain actions across the company in Q4, which led to a restructuring charge of $12 million… targeting a substantial reduction in our technology costs over time… rationalizing our application landscape… capitalizing on emerging AI-driven software development tools” .
- CEO on AI monetization shift: “The trading market is rapidly evolving from a few substantial pre-training engagements to a broader array of smaller fine-tuning projects where AI developers require more specialized content” .
Q&A Highlights
- Organic growth ex-AI: Management expects continuation of drivers (open access, TA/subscriptions, Inclusive Access/courseware) with good visibility from CY2025 renewals; AI is not fully “baked” into guidance given market evolution .
- Vertical AI recurring: Early-stage utility-based licensing; ~$1M in recurring pilots; viewed as high-margin, embedded in R&D workflows (APIs, current data) .
- Submissions vs output: Lag of ~6–8 months; submissions growth props subscription value and supports OA conversion over time; trends expected to smooth .
- Macro planning and budgeting: Diversified revenue, recurring contracts, cost levers; scenario planning for R&D budgets and enrollments; vigilant expense controls .
- Capital allocation: Returned ~$137M in FY25; opportunistic buybacks contingent on valuation; expect more balanced mix as debt is reduced (helped by $120M proceeds; ~$5M interest savings) .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2025 S&P Global consensus vs actuals: EPS $1.27 est vs $1.37 actual (beat); revenue $435.0M est vs $442.6M actual (beat); EBITDA $125.3M est vs S&P “actual” $113.2M (miss), while Wiley reported adjusted EBITDA $125.6M (non-GAAP) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Street likely revises FY2026 EPS/margin higher given repeat execution and raised margin target; near-term model adjustments may reduce Learning contribution due to tough AI compare and Professional retail softness while increasing Research OA/recurring growth assumptions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality beat on adjusted EPS and revenue with visible margin drivers; execution underpinning FY2026 guidance raise on margins and reaffirmed FCF target .
- AI licensing now a multi-pronged monetization path (model training + recurring vertical fine-tuning), expanding corporate addressable market; partnerships (AWS, Perplexity) enhance distribution and product velocity .
- Research engine healthy: strong CY2025 renewals, double-digit submissions growth across major geographies, OA momentum; supports low-to-mid single digit top-line growth with compounding recurring base .
- Learning mix watch: Academic resilient (Inclusive Access/courseware), but Professional retail softness and prior-year AI compare temper near-term growth; margin improvements remain strong (37.4% FY) .
- Balance sheet optionality: Net debt/EBITDA 1.8x and $120M divestiture cash enable deleveraging and ~$5M annual interest savings; continued shareholder returns (dividend/buybacks) balanced with targeted reinvestment .
- Near-term trading setup: Q1 phasing headwind (~$17M AI compare; partly offset by $9M) could pressure reported revenue, but full-year lens remains appropriate as margin trajectory and cost actions drive EPS/FCF .
- Medium-term thesis: Durable recurring revenue, disciplined restructuring, and expanding AI/corporate monetization support above-consensus margin/FCF potential; execution on vertical-specific AI subscriptions is a key upside lever .